Question 5056 — energy and fuels

Summary

Mr. Maxime Laisney draws the attention of the Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industrial and Digital Sovereignty to the subject of electricity prices in the context of the “post-ARENH” reform. Rapporteur of the 2025 budget on “energy” credits, Mr. MP had already asked the ministry in October 2024 for projections of electricity bills as part of the post-ARENH system presented in the finance bill (PLF). This request remained unanswered. According to economist Nicolas Goldberg, interviewed in October, it would be impossible to guarantee the “target price” of 70 euros/MWh set out in the explanatory statement of the PLF without justification. All things being equal, on January 1, 2026 we could expect an increase in bills of 10% for a household and even 40% for an electro-intensive business. The UFC-Que Choisir demonstrated, supporting calculations, that under this reform, consumers would pay on average 19% more, or up to 250 euros extra per year for an average household. Furthermore, if this reform had been applied from 2025, the supply cost used to set regulated prices would have increased to 117.29 euros/MWh, a dizzying increase of 44% compared to the current level (81.37 euros/MWh). If the deputy has taken the right note of the contestation of these estimates by the ministry, he did not find the argument to be demonstrated. Also, he would like to obtain from the ministry projections of electricity bills for different consumer profiles (households, communities, electro-intensive businesses or not), accompanied by details of the calculations as well as the assumptions made, within the framework of the new “post-ARENH” mechanism. As such, he addresses the following questions: What production cost hypothesis does he use for the existing nuclear fleet? What estimate of the cost of extending the life of existing reactors does he use? What cost assumption does he apply for the construction of new nuclear reactors? What will be the pace envisaged for the settlement of EDF's debt? Taking into account the hypotheses previously mentioned, what will the taxation and capping thresholds be used? When does he envisage the publication of the corresponding decrees? What will be the level of contribution to the “universal nuclear payment” and how will its application be reflected in concrete terms on consumers’ bills? Finally, what hypotheses for the evolution of electricity market prices does he envisage? The answer to each of these questions conditions the possibility of anticipating the calculation of electricity bills for January 1, 2026. This is why he asks him to kindly enlighten all consumers and citizens on the scope of this system.

Machine translation from French. The official text remains authoritative.

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